Part 7: Winner Winner Chicken Dinner
Eight weeks of research finally come together to offer an investment opportunity for the rest of 2025
Readers,
This is it.
You’ve made it to Part 7 of my series, “Finding the Perfect Investment for 2025” 🎉 🥳
If you’ve been following along, you will have learned how to:
1. Study the macro environment
Assess an industry environment
Understand key investing metrics
Screen for investment opportunities
If you’re just finding this series now, take a second to read through the previous parts of the series! 👇
![[Business] Part 6: Trimming the Fat](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pfCQ!,w_140,h_140,c_fill,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F80577d12-94d0-4c97-a556-0f91cbbf10ab_1080x720.jpeg)
![[Business] Part 5: Separating the Best from the Rest](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9I0D!,w_140,h_140,c_fill,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa8c1236e-be9f-4826-9764-c54a7ebe7d64_1024x608.png)
![[Business] Part 4: Finding the Perfect Investment For 2025](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u0_0!,w_140,h_140,c_fill,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd65a2cc1-f758-47bf-97b3-2a91d767d492_1024x608.png)
Throughout the publication of this series, my style has changed, my newsletter has been split into three distinct newsletters, and we’ve gained 30 subscribers and numerous followers.
Thank you for your support! 🆙 🆙 🆙
In Part 7, we will arrive upon the one stock that that is our “Perfect Investment for 2025”.
In addition, at the end of this piece, you will be provided with:
Our investment winner 🎊 — and my walkthrough in doing a final evaluation of the qualitative aspects of the company (leadership, sentiment, etc.)
A downloadable spreadsheet through which I conducted my analysis 📊 📑
A handful of company analysis reports 📝
Once you reach the end, be sure to leave your feedback on the series and what you’d like to see covered next or changed for next time! 🔥 💬
Now… time to find our winner 🍿 🎥
1. The Final Screening
In Part 6 we ended with a list of 13 companies that met a handful of criteria that distinguished them from our initial bunch of 246 companies.
In case you missed it, here they are:
(Tickers: AROC -4.50%↓ , USAC -5.96%↓ , FTI -11.32%↓ , BKR -5.37%↓ , NGS -6.00%↓ , EMR -5.84%↓ , FLS -5.40%↓ , ITRI -3.16%↓ , OGE -0.43%↓ , EVRG -0.57%↓ , ORA -2.76%↓ , 2074 (Gotion), GEV -4.91%↓)
and…
📌 The Metrics
Increasing Earnings Growth (Trend)
3Y>2Y>1Y Forward EBITDA CAGR (Future Outlook)
Increasing Margins (Trend)
Forward P/E < TTM P/E (Future Outlook)
Forward EV/EBITDA < TTM EV/EBITDA (Future Outlook)
All of these companies are worth taking a look into, but just taking the filtering one step further in requiring the company to have forward EBITDA CAGR increasing and increasing margins, we arrive at our winner, and that is… drumroll…
Emerson Electric Co! EMR 0.00%↑
And just to be thorough in the development of our screening, here’s what the final screen looked like 👇
As you can see, Emerson was the last company standing after much screening, and it is begging us to take a closer look at it 🔎
With that, now comes the final test — and that test brings in to question all of the things that can’t be quantified or explained by the numbers. This is our qualitative portion that looks at leadership, sentiment, major news, strategy, and more.
2. The Qualitative Test
The qualitative portion of choosing the perfect investment is just as important as the quantitative portion.
The data begs the questions, and the questions are often times answered with gathering qualitative information and piecing them together to understand the story (and what the next chapter will be 💰 ).
In this category, some things I like to look at are:
Business Model
Leadership
Sentiment
Major Events
Company History
And after doing a little searching myself, I turned to our NLP tool, ChatGPT, for a little help curating the information I was looking to analyze.
The final product of my personal research and using a LLM to speed up the process 🔔 is this twenty page detailed analysis report 🚨. This report has been modified and validated to provide a clean final product for you to learn more about EMR 0.00%↑. The report includes price targets for base, bear, and bull cases.
Use it well! ⭐️
My callouts from the analysis:
Strategic moves in the past 5-10 years were timely and indicate a shift towards a higher-growth business model (Acquiring Aspen and divesting in Vertiv, clean energy)
Industries served are high growth and positioned well
New, experienced leadership leading company into new phase and approach to business
First mover in being a software-forward automation company with a unique combination of other product offerings
5. Strength of competition is notable, but limited
And now, to answer the question that I’m sure is burning in the back of your head — what does EMR have to do with Energy?
3. Final Thoughts
I wasn’t expecting Emerson Electric Co. to be the company that made it to the end. It’s not a pure play Energy pick, it’s not a company I would classify as high-growth, and it wasn’t even a company I had heard about before.
That said, what a pick it could be! 💰
I initially thought about potentially reworking the screeners to focus more on an Energy play, but that would be denying us from ending the series in the positive headspace where we started — embracing the market as a blank canvas with little to no bias in terms of what the right investment is.
Emerson clearly checks all the boxes we established for the “Perfect Investment”, and in my opinion, we shouldn’t argue with that. Further, nothing stood out to me after the qualitative review, and that made me stick to my guns with Emerson to an even greater extent 💪
If you’re interested in seeing the initial screening list that we started with with custom metrics included, check out the investment screener Google Sheet that was used for this series! 📊 📄
Aside from Emerson, if you’ve been following the series thus far, you may have interest in seeing out some of the other investment options that were listed at any stage of our screening…
If this is you — subscribe & reach out to me — and I will get you a company report on them!
It’s been a fun ride, and I hope you learned something along the way.
If there was a particular part of the series that was helpful in your own investing journey, please share it with amalgamation community 💬 .
Lastly, if you have ideas for future series or feedback on this series — make sure to share those with me as well! 💡
In learning,
